Ronaldo Retirement: What Portugal Will Look Like Without Their GOAT

Jorge Jesus left Cristiano Ronaldo on the bench in recent match in Oslo, kept him there for the whole of a 2-1 win over Norway, and then told reporters in Copenhagen that he could start any player from the bench, and that if he needed Ronaldo for 30 minutes he would use him, and if he did not need him he would not. The Al-Nassr forward left the camp on Wednesday after a talk with federation president Pedro Proenca, and wrote that he wished Portugal and his teammates luck.

Portugal went on to beat Denmark 4-2 that night without him. Before now, Ronaldo already said this is probably his last year in football, as Lionel Messi recently did from Argentina in August after the World Cup final, with a farewell against Benin set for 6 October.

But if the row ends in retirement, how have Portugal fared when the five-time Ballon d’Or winner has not been on the pitch?

Before the Ronaldo we know, Luis Figo and Rui Costa led Portugal to the Euro 2004 final, and Greece beat them. The 2006 World Cup semi-final, with a young Ronaldo already in the team, was as close as that group came. He watched the final of Euro 2016 from the touchline, after coming off injured, as the Seleção das Quinas lifted the trophy.

His sister Elma Aveiro recently wrote that the country was envious and deserved to go back to the ‘mediocrity’ of the years before CR7.

With him they became a side that expected the last eight, he scored 146 goals for them, and this summer he still scored twice in a 5-0 win over Uzbekistan before Spain put them out in the last 16.

Since the 2022 World Cup he has been available, and coaches have still had nights without him. Portugal played 37 games with him and won 26, drew 7 and lost 5, a win rate of 70.2 percent. They played 11 without him and won 8, drew 2 and lost 1, a win rate of 72.7 percent. His fans may not like it, but the win rate is almost the same, with or without the GOAT. With a reported 2.05 goals a game with him and 3.54 without him, Portugal have also scored more when he is out.

The team have also scored more when he is out, though they let more in, which is what happens when Goncalo Ramos, Joao Felix and Bruno Fernandes take the space a fixed centre-forward used to hold.

The argument was also there even at club football. When he went back to Manchester United in 2021, he scored 18 Premier League goals, and United finished sixth, with 16 wins and 12 losses, 57 scored and 57 conceded. His numbers were obviously fine, but the team were not. People who say a great forward does not automatically make the side better usually start from that season, and the Portugal issues since 2022 look the same way.

Oslo and Copenhagen show what Jesus wants if the retirement happens. He asked for a fresh forward who could press, so Ramos started, ran the channels, and scored the winner in Norway after Erling Haaland had equalised. In Denmark Ramos set up Joao Cancelo and scored the second from a Bruno Fernandes pass, then Vitinha and Felix finished a game Denmark had levelled twice.

Ramos leads the line, Felix plays off him, Bruno supplies, and the full-backs step on because the striker is not waiting on the last defender. As the figure reveals, they give up more chances, and on nights when the other team leaves space they score the extra goals.

Ronaldo was always going to retire one day. Messi looked at a final and a squad coming through and said he had nothing left to give. Ronaldo looked at a bench and a coach who would not promise him the start, and left. Jesus has already picked the team without him three times now. And the record since 2022 says they fare about as well without him on wins, and better on goals.